Oh, Barcelona! One and a half year ago they inked Dejan Bodiroga, which by the end of the season turned out to have been the best move the team had ever made in its history, and at the end of this perfect season (ACB championship, Copa del Rey, Euroleague) – the Barcelona committed its gravest error. Perhaps even unknowingly.

With some things you just don’t argue: A Dejan Bodiroga deciding 3 point shot down the stretch, Tyus Edney’s chances to add another trophy to his long list every season and Mirsad Turkcan. To these we must now add the following heretofore unwritten golden rule: “the fate of an incumbent Euroleague champion lies with the identity of the team in which the winning point guard plays”

In 1996, Panathinaikos celebrated its first ever Euroleague title. Since then, it added two more titles, but that one in 1996 was the most special, not only for being the first and purest, but also because it was the last time that the leading point guard of the European champion was a local player (the legendary Giannakis).

Maybe it was the Bosman law, maybe just superstition. Starting in 1997, and up to the present, there was not one European champion who gave the keys to a local playmaker. David Rivers started this tradition with Olympiacos, Kinder’s Rigaudeau replaced him the following year; Tyus Edney celebrated with Zalgiris in 1999, Koch/Gentile and finally Katash did the same with Pao in ’00; Arriel McDonald in the Suproleague and Marko Jaric in the Euroleague did the same in 2001; Mulaomerovic did it the season before last (again with Pao), and the most recent celebrant was the Lithuanian Sarunas Jasikevicius.

A careful scrutiny of each of the foregoing champions and respective point guards will make everything very clear. But we should first start with a qualification: since no team since the great Split managed to win back-to-back titles, signing the point guard on for another season does not mean a second title. What the Law does state, though, is simple:

Every Euroleague champion that retained its point guard for one more season reached the final of that subsequent season, and each champion that failed to do so – found itself far away from the Final Four.

This is the ground law. There is one exception, and 2 amendments. The exception is that only once the above law didn’t fully went through, but that was only because of the split season in 00/01.

The first amendment says: Not only the champion that released the PG won’t make it to the Final 4, but also the team that jumped on the bargain and signed him for the following season.

The second amendment says: The place of the champion that released its Point Guard in the Final 4 will be taken by a team that beat the champion twice during the following season, and that team will lose in the Semi Finals of the Final 4.

The meaning of the law and its amendments for this season is very clear. Barcelona, that released Sarunas Jasikevicius won’t survive the death group in the Top 16 and will stay out of the Final Four in Tel Aviv. The first amendments means that even Maccabi Tel Aviv, that signed Sarunas, will stay out as well. The second amendment means that Barca’s spot in the Final Four will be taken by a team that we’ll beat it twice during this season. Since it didn’t happen in the regular season, which ever team that will beat Barca twice in the Top 16, will make it to the Final Four and then lose in the Semi Finals.

Of course this is pure speculations based on nothing but history facts, and nothing more. But don’t under estimate the power of tradition. Barca and Maccabi will have to fight not only tough opponents, but also the history.

For the skeptical readers here are the stories of each Euroleague champion and its point-guard from 1997 until now.

1997 – David Rivers’s Olympiacos

Olympiacos took the 1997 cup in a rather roundabout way. In the pre-Top16 era, the teams were divided into 4 groups of 6 teams each, and at the end of the first round, the 3 first teams of Group A would form a new group together with the 3 last teams of Group B, etc. Olympiacos had a catastrophic start of the season. They only beat Charleroi on the road, lost in Greece to Alba Berlin, and finished the first round in the fifth place, with an unlovely 5-5 record. On the other hand, the low ranking allowed the team to meet new teams ranked 1-3, without carrying over the burden of the first round losses to the top teams – which would have blocked Olympiacos from climbing upwards. A slight improvement in the second round, and a positive basket-balance against Maccabi raised Olympiacos to the 3rd place at the end of the round.

Seemingly a considerable improvement; actually, the worst position from which to start the elimination stage. Third place must play all series without home court advantage (while fourth place can enjoy a home court advantage after knocking out the first placed opponent). Olympiacos knocked Partizan out with a third-game road victory, and in the quarter-finals swept away the hated Greens from Athens. An easy victory over Arriel McDonald’s Ljubljana in the semi-finals, and in the finals – well, what was easier than beating Barcelona of those days in the finals? 73-58 was the final score. David Rivers received MVP honors with 26 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals. The dominant point guard, who does everything for his team, was born again at the European pinnacle.

In the summer, someone at Olympiacos decided that Rivers, then aged 31, was not worth the money he was demanding. Team System Bologna signed up the fresh European champion. Olympiacos inked Michael Hawkins instead. The 1997/98 season started much more impressively for the Reds, and they finished the first and second rounds in first place. The eighth-finals’ opponent was again Partizan, but this time the Champions succumbed to a 0-2 sweep by the avenging Partizans that later made it to the Final Four that season and lost in the Semi Finals to Kinder Bologna, starting the 2nd amendment. David Rivers was also kept out of the Final Four, starting the first amendment, not before eliminating Maccabi Tel Aviv of the “Kattsheffer” era, in one of the greatest elimination series ever to be played in Europe. Those were the days…

1998 – Antoine Rigaudeau’s Kinder Bologna

Everyone of us has had at least one off-kilter hoop in his childhood basketball yards – a hoop that forced you to warp your throw somewhat if you wanted to score with a reasonable percentage. It makes sense that the baskets in Cholet, France, are systematically off-kilter – since Antoine Rigaudeau, a local, has an inexplicable tendency to throw the ball with his head tilted sideways, as if he were trying to straighten that warped hoop of his childhood. A classic.

In the summer of 1997/98 Rigaudeau signed at Kinder Bologna. Rigaudeau landed directly into the group that the great Messina was building, including the legendary Danilovic, the aggressive duo Abbio and Sconochini, one of the most efficient front courts with Savic and the then-young Nesterovic, and the only-somewhat less aggressive duo Binelli and Frosini.

Kinder finished the first stage with a near-perfect record (9-1), and the second stage was even smoother, with Kinder guaranteeing its first place long before the round was over. A 13-3 balance decorated Messina at the end of the second round, 4 wins more than second place. Sweeps over Estudiantes and (like Olympiacos the preceding year) over its municipal rival, sent Kinder to the Final Four. A one-sided game against Partizan Belgrade (who we should recall knocked out the champion Olympiacos in the Eighth-Finals and started the 2nd amendment), and a 58-44 win over AEK in what must have been the most unattractive final in European history gave Messina his first European title. Rigaudeau finished the final as the leading scorer with 14 points and 5 steals.

Kinder kept Rigaudeau on, and was duly rewarded. Not the title again, true, but a second consecutive appearance in the final game. Rigaudeau scored 27 points with 5/7 from the three-point range, but facing a terrific show by Zalgiris, this performance was only good enough for silver.

1999 – Tyus Edney’s Zalgiris Kaunas

What a dream season! Cinderella at her finest! It may be said that the blooming of European basketball, even in the NBA, started with this win by Zalgiris – which pulled European basketball away from its rigid, defensive, tiring game, whiling away the clock, and aiming at keeping as low a score as possible – and made it offensive, attractive, still using killer defense, but one that sends the team running back to the basket rather than killing time.

The 4 group leaders at the end of the first round were: Zalgiris (Group A), Panathinaikos with a perfect record (Group B), Olympiacos (Group C) and Olimpija (Group D). The two Greek teams were undoubtedly the more senior and impressive of the lot; Olimpija had visit the Final Four only two years previously; and Zalgiris? Many attributed its high ranking to the easy Group it had completed (Saratov, Tau Vitoria of the time, Pau, Varese and Fenerbahce).

At the end of the second round it was still unclear whether Zalgiris was for real, or whether its first place ranking (3 wins more than second place) was still because it had not met a worthy opponent. A sweep over Ulker at the Eighth-Finals was still not impressive enough, and then came the match with Efes Pilsen, who at the time was considered a Final Four contender every year (although in hindsight became a serial Quarter-Finals loser). Zalgiris won the first game by a single point, and then, facing thousands of fans at the Abdi Ipekci, stunned Efes with an 84-70 victory. A 16-point victory over Olympiacos at the semi-finals, and in the final game – a terrific upset. A Lithuanian 82-74 victory over the reigning champion and clear favorite, Kinder Bologna.

Zalgiris’s point guard was playing his first season in Europe, but needed no breaking in. Veteran Anthony Bowie (35) provided the shooting and the experience, but Tyus Edney was the heart, the motor and anything else needed. Since then, Edney does not complete a European season without some title. He received MVP honors for the Final Four, with 14 points and 6 assists in the Final game.

It was through no fault of Zalgiris, but at the end of the season they brokenheartedly had to part ways with Edney, who started his career at Benetton Treviso. Zalgiris, on the other hand, finished the 1999/00 season in the last place of Group E with a sorry 4-12 record.

Benetton, with the Edney champion, kept the 1st amendments alive and was eliminated in the first round of the play offs by Fortitudo Bologna. In the following season Zalgiris lost twice to Barcelona in the 2nd phase and the same Barcelona made it to the Final 4 where it lost to Maccabi in the Semi Finals. 2nd amendment is checked.

2000 – Oded Kattash’s Panathinaikos

It is difficult to clearly define the point guard position in the 2000 Panathinaikos. There was the German Michael Koch, the Italian Nando Gentile and there was this kid from Israel, Oded Kattash. Obradovic, naturally, mostly counted on his two Serbs, Bodiroga and Rebraca. The point guard position was relatively insignificant. Until the finals.

Pao ended the first round with a near-perfect record (9-1), and retained its first place at the end of the second round, too, 3 wins ahead of second placed Olimpija. The rest was relatively easy. Buducnost surprisingly won the second game of the 3-game knockout series, but Pao rolled over the Serbs in the decisive match and qualified for the Quarter-Finals, where they made short thrift of Cibona. In the semi-finals it was a legendary squad of Efes (Ibo, Besok, Mula, Drobnjak and a young Turkoglu), which did not put too much of a strain, and then the memorable final game against the surprising Maccabi. It should be sufficient only to say that with all due respect to Bodiroga (who did not yet become such a magnificent winner back then) and to Rebraca (who was elected MVP), the winner of that final game was that slim kid from Israel, Oded Katash, the point guard.

In the following season, Europe was divided, but not so Pao’s battery of point guards. Gentile and Koch stayed; Katash was injured and didn’t play, but definitely stayed. Pao reached the Suproleague finals, where it lost to Maccabi.

2001 – Arriel McDonald’s Maccabi Tel Aviv

Maccabi, in their second attempt to reach the title, finish the first round in first place, above Efes Pilsen, skips lightly over Scavolini in the Quarter-Finals, and reaches the Final Four in Paris. A rally against CSKA in the semi-finals, and the sweet revenge in the Finals over Obradovic’s Greens, and Maccabi is the first and last Suproleague champion.

The point guard? Arriel McDonald, of course. Final Four MVP, celebrating a cup in his second season with the team. Maccabi keeps McDonald for a third season, and receives the guaranteed result. Maccabi did not actually reach the finals in the following season, this being the only exception to the rule, but certainly made it all the way to another Final Four. And, considering, that there were two 2001 title holders and a new champion in 2002, and there is only room for 2 teams in the Final game – someone had to stay out, and that was Maccabi. The Law still stands. The exception is caused only because of the split season

2001 – Marko Jaric’s Kinder Bologna

After a season in the late Saporta Cup, Kinder Bologna was back in the European creme-de-la-creme. The divided season in Europe allowed for a refreshing change: elimination playoffs from the Eighth-Finals through the Finals. No more Final Four. Well, at least for one season… Kinder still had Rigaudeau, but Messina decided to shift matters around a bit, and moved Rigaudeau one step sideways. The point guard position was generally taken by Marko Jaric, who had crossed the street from the Skipper.

Kinder controlled all of the stages easily and even in the semi-finals swept Skipper 3-0. It seemed that nothing will stop them. Coming up from the other side, though, was Tau Ceramica, enjoying its own impetus, having knocked out 3 consecutive Greek rivals, and put up a huge battle for the coveted crown.

Tau, who met Kinder in the preliminary stages, too, shocked Kinder by continuing its drive in the first game, downing Kinder 65-78 in Bologna. Messina had already said that he would be happy to travel to Vitoria with a 1-1 record, and indeed, in the second game Kinder crushed Tau 94-73. The series shifted to Spain for two games that could have handed Tau the title, but Ginobili was huge, and his 27 points gave the home court advantage back to Kinder with an 80-60 win. Tau won the fourth game, and the series was back in Italy for a decisive fifth game. Rigaudeau was the leading scorer with 18, Jaric and Ginobili added 16 each, and Kinder was champion again: 82-74.

At the end of the season Kinder kept on the whole back court trio, and lived up to expectations. One year later, and they were in the Final game again, again with Jaric and Rigaudeau, but this time they were facing one Dejan Bodiroga, and the Cup traveled to Greece. The Law, however, was upheld.

2002 – Damir Mulaomerovic’s Panathinaikos.

The year before, Pao “only” reached the Finals, so it could replace their playmaker without incurring the jinx. The Croatian point guard, Damir Mulaomerovic, who had taken Pilsen to the Final Four, landed in Athens to work with Bodiroga and Obradovic.

Pao controlled the first stage, finishing it with a respectable 12-2 record, 3 wins more than second place Real Madrid (who was then still some version of the Real Madrid). They started the second stage with an unreasonable landslide defeat by Olympiacos, 75-92, but thereafter won all 5 games, and much thanks to Beno Udrih, who surprised Olympiacos in Piraeus with Olimpija, made it to the Final Four as the only team to drop only a single game in the Top 16 stage. Mula in fact choked again, but Dejan Bodiroga was gigantic over Maccabi in the semi-finals and continued to shine in the Finals, beating the host and favorite Kinder Bologna, and together with Mulaomerovic heaved the Cup high.

One must admit that unlike Edney and Rivers, the other two point guards who did not continue after winning the title, Mula was not too impressive during that season, and it was not he who carried the team all the way to the crown. At the end of the season he left, and was replaced by a Slovenian kid named Jaka Lakovic and one Arriel McDonald. Mula had asked for more than his market value, and eventually had to abashedly sign with in little Udine. Later he moved to Real Madrid, and that was no great fireworks, either.

Pao kept up the tradition. It seems that Obradovic’s magic, in reaching the Final Four in every season he had coached in the Euroleague, was not stronger than the jinx. Pao did finish the first stage heading their Group, but played terribly in the Top 16, losing twice by margins they are not accustomed to in Athens, and finished up in third place. Without Mula Pao stayed out of the Final Four. Let’s hope Obradovic learned his lesson. Mula himself played for Real Madrid and didn’t even make it to the Top 16 to keep the tradition – a champion PG won’t make it to the Final Four if he didn’t continue with his team.

To keep the 2nd amendments alive, Montepaschi Siena beat Pao twice during that season (once in the Regular season, once in the Top 16) and made it for the first time in its history to the Final Four on Pao’s account. Montepaschi, obviously, lost in the Semi Finals.

2003 – Sarunas Jasikevicius’s Barcelona

Saras reached Barcelona two years before this last season, after almost knocking Barcelona out in the Euroleague Quarter-Finals with Olympia Ljubljana. Barcelona eventually went on to the Final Four, and was crushed by Maccabi, and that summer made sure to ink the Lithuanian Saras reached Barcelona two years before this last season, after almost knocking Barcelona out in the Euroleague Quarter-Finals with Olympia Ljubljana. Barcelona eventually went on to the Final Four, and was crushed by Maccabi, and that summer made sure to ink the Lithuanian playmaker.

Saras was unable to take Barcelona back to the Final Four, so in the summer they added Bodiroga and Fucka, to make things a touch easier. Jasikevicius showed respect, more or less, waived some throws and some space, and Barca was on its way. Together in the same group with Benetton was not easy, but Barca managed to maintain a clean home record, beat Efes on the road after two overtimes, and ended the first stage in second place. The Top 16 was not too easy, and Barcelona was the last to qualify, being only 4 points away from being eliminated by Olympiacos in the fifth round, and by Olimpija in the sixth and last game. Still, Barcelona survived (Bodiroga, you know…). A victory over CSKA in the semi-finals, and a rain of treys in the last quarter of the Finals by Fucka, Bodiroga and… Jasikevicius gave Barca a historic title.

Now Barcelona has a new point guard. Now Jasikevicius is in Maccabi. History tells us both Maccabi and Barcelona will stay out of the Final Four, despite each of them head a Top 16 group and Maccabi is hosting. Pao, Montepaschi and Benetton will give their best to beat Barca twice, to secure the spot in the Final Four. And if none of this will happen, history will become nothing more than…history. A new tradition will arise. In five more games we will know for sure.